There is a significant difference in the Palin vs. BO experience equation.
BO's experience is sufficient in the view of millions of Democratic primary voters.
Palin's experience is sufficient in the opinion of one man!
Friday, August 29, 2008
On the Republican VP
I simply can't believe that Palin was the first choice.
More likely, the front-runners Pawlenty, Romney and Lieberman declined. You may wonder why?
McCain had to give in to the "base". Sounds like the work of the great mathematician.
More likely, the front-runners Pawlenty, Romney and Lieberman declined. You may wonder why?
McCain had to give in to the "base". Sounds like the work of the great mathematician.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Speeches and more
That was quite a speech by Obama tonight. Nice balance between soaring rhetoric and kitchen table stuff, and I like how he managed to appear post-partisan while attacking Bush and McCain at the same time!
That said however, it was Bill Clinton's speech last night that reminded me once again why he's probably the most talented politician of the last 25 years.
By the way, in case you missed this New York Times story about Obama's meteoric rise, a couple of tidbits stood out for me:
Amazing!
That said however, it was Bill Clinton's speech last night that reminded me once again why he's probably the most talented politician of the last 25 years.
By the way, in case you missed this New York Times story about Obama's meteoric rise, a couple of tidbits stood out for me:
- 8 years ago Obama wasn't invited to the Democratic convention, paid his own way there, and almost couldn't rent a car because of bad credit.
- 4 years ago the speech he gave at the convention was the first time he had used a teleprompter.
Amazing!
Something huge happened tonight
Asked to respond to BO' s speech - Karl "New Math" Rove divided the speech into three sections.
WRT section two - paraphrasing the great mathematician - there are a number of items here that can be taken apart in a debate. Two problems with that: 1) On policy, Republicans don't have much to offer and 2) McCain isn't a policy wonk.
Charles Krauthammer: Not great- but brilliant....
A WSJ reader poll where BO generally get hammered: A - 66%, B - 12%, C - 10% D - 5%, F - 6%. Total votes 2227.
Something huge happened tonight....
WRT section two - paraphrasing the great mathematician - there are a number of items here that can be taken apart in a debate. Two problems with that: 1) On policy, Republicans don't have much to offer and 2) McCain isn't a policy wonk.
Charles Krauthammer: Not great- but brilliant....
A WSJ reader poll where BO generally get hammered: A - 66%, B - 12%, C - 10% D - 5%, F - 6%. Total votes 2227.
Something huge happened tonight....
Obama's Ground Game (Try again)
From: Charles A. Lewis
Subject: Obamagram: My First Convention
August 27, 2008
Obamagram: My First Convention
Hello everyone,
I am attending my first, and probably only, political convention. I'm here because of my once-every-forty-years enthusiasm for a candidate (remember, Bobby was the last one). I also bring an amateur anthropologist's curiosity to this most curious of clan gatherings.
This will be brief as I am pecking it out on my beloved BlackBerry.
Last night, sitting on the convention floor among the Illinois delegation, I was impressed by the manic atmosphere. One of the many roving reporters (I was actually interviewed and photographed by the Christian Science Monitor) who was a veteran convention-goer told me that the high level of enthusiasm at this convention was distinctly different from what she had previously experienced.
So far, I have found the delegates to be surprisingly ordinary people thrust into a frenzied, exhausting situation surrounded by security of Olympian proportions. Each night I have wondered how the fire marshal has allowed so many people to be packed in to what is a now-common modern basketball arena. Thank God for the ability to escape to a skybox as a member of the National Finance Committee.
Yesterday morning, I attended one of the endless panels offering opinions about the proceedings. This one turned out to be refreshingly useful. The panelists actually said more than once that they "didn't know" the answer to a question. Amazing.
They offered a couple of particularly useful insights. Despite what the mass reporting will lead us to expect, there will be no way to discern a polling "bounce", or lack thereof, from this convention because the Republican convention begins, contrary to custom, immediately on its heels. It won't be until the dust settles in mid-September that the national polls (which are pretty useless anyway) are affected by what happened here.
They also made another great point: the mass media are so anxiously, and self-interestedly, anticipating a Clinton car crash here that they are missing the real, but much more boring, story – the one about the ground game that the Obama campaign is quietly putting in place. That ground game is greatly, and positively, impacted by two factors -- supporter enthusiasm and cash. I expect that we will continue to have both in abundance. I also expect that Barack's ground operations in an historically-large number of states – possibly nearly double the number that Kerry was in – will be a decisive factor in the general election -- much like they were in the primary, much to the surprise of the mass media.
The media coverage of this causes me to return to the baseball analogy I used throughout the primary. We almost never see singles in game highlights on TV – only homeruns or hit batters rushing the pitcher’s mound. But, most games are won by manufacturing runs one boring hit at a time. The ground game.
The panel also asked the question -- who is more divided, the Democrats or the Republicans? Very good question. Also, whatever happened to all of the talk about Sen. Clinton being a controversial candidate with unusually high negatives?
As I was leaving that briefing, I ran in to David Brooks, who I last met with at his 25th reunion at the University of Chicago a few weeks ago. Coincidentally, he had made some customarily perceptive observations in his column yesterday morning (see attachment). He reminded us that about a year ago Barack was stagnant in the polls (I think he was actually trailing badly) and he got all sorts of unsolicited advice from his nervous supporters and assorted experts. I remember writing in an Obamagram to cool it; that he would be fine. David offers the same advice: to ignore the anxious advice of the "experts" in his party and be himself. I am, once again, confident in Barack's judgment, that he will be as smart in the general as he was in the primary. I expect a very good outcome in this election.
From just one observer's point of view, I think the highlights of this convention so far have been -- in sequential order -- the Kennedys, Michelle Obama, Gov. Schweitzer, and Sen. Clinton.
Michelle was flawless and tremendously appealing in vouching for Barack as a family man with all-American values.
Schweitzer, who I had never heard of, was the real keynote speaker, not Gov. Warner, in my opinion. He gave the most rousing speech so far. Just fabulous.
The most memorable characterizations of Sen. McCain from last night:
-- "The Minnesota Twins: Bush and McCain" (my slightly-revised version, alluding to the site of the Republican convention next week.)
-- Sen. McCain is a "Sidekick, not a Maverick" given that he has voted with Bush 95% of the time.
-- "McCain's more of the same" or, better yet, “McCain’s the Same.”
Well, my thumbs are tired, so that's enough from Denver for now. My wife, Penny, arrives today for the final two nights. This should continue to be fun, and instructive, watching the natives in their habitat.
As always, please "pass it along".
Chuck
Obama's Ground Game
I wanted to share this Obamagram sent out by Chuck Lewis who is a good friend of one of my partners and is on Obama's Finance Committee.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Feminists and Clintonistas
That uber-feminist Susan Faludi has an article provocatively titled "Second-Place Citizens" in today's New York Times about the women who are upset about Hillary Clinton's loss in the primaries. She quotes a number of them using words like "travesty", "cheated" and "betrayal", and states that about 25% of the women plan to vote for McCain as a "protest".
I'm afraid I just don't get it. What betrayal are they talking about? By whom? And what are they protesting? Wasn't this a democratic process and didn't their candidate lose? Was that Obama's fault and should he simply have stepped aside?
I also wonder how these feminists reconcile the fact that most of Hillary's so-called experience in government was from being the wife of an ex-president. (Disclaimer: I was actually for Hillary during the California primary, primarily because I thought she was tough and would take the fight to the Republicans).
I particularly don't understand the "protest" vote for John McCain. So will it make these women feel better to have two more Scalias or Thomases on the Supreme Court? Do they believe the Republican Party will be fairer towards women and will give them greater opportunities? Can anyone explain the logic here (if there is any)?
I'm afraid I just don't get it. What betrayal are they talking about? By whom? And what are they protesting? Wasn't this a democratic process and didn't their candidate lose? Was that Obama's fault and should he simply have stepped aside?
I also wonder how these feminists reconcile the fact that most of Hillary's so-called experience in government was from being the wife of an ex-president. (Disclaimer: I was actually for Hillary during the California primary, primarily because I thought she was tough and would take the fight to the Republicans).
I particularly don't understand the "protest" vote for John McCain. So will it make these women feel better to have two more Scalias or Thomases on the Supreme Court? Do they believe the Republican Party will be fairer towards women and will give them greater opportunities? Can anyone explain the logic here (if there is any)?
Monday, August 25, 2008
The POW card
Swaroop asked earlier if McCain was playing the POW card too often. I think it's becoming more obvious with each passing day that he's going to milk this for all it's worth. How much impact it has is anybody's guess, but so far it seems to have worked, at least with the press!
I wish the Democrats would take on this "being a POW excuses anything" argument more forcefully, and really examine McCain's service. After all, remember how the Repubs went after John Kerry, accusing him of self-inflicted woulds, faking injury and even making fun of his Purple Heart?
However my guess is that the Democrats won't have the guts to do this, since they're wimps and are scared to death of being labeled anti-military. In fact when Wesley Clark made the perfectly logical statement that being a POW doesn't prepare you for being President, there was nary a Democrat willing to back him up, and even Obama repudiated the statement and uninvited him from the convention!
Incidentally, I think this article titled "Why I Will Not Vote For John McCain" is required reading. It's from another pilot who was a POW with John McCain, and it provides valuable context and background info about POWs in Vietnam. Although it was a trying time for McCain, it's clear that the 600 other POWs there suffered similarly, some were captives for a longer time, and many were more decorated than McCain. This was not the singular act of heroism it's being projected to be.
I wish the Democrats would take on this "being a POW excuses anything" argument more forcefully, and really examine McCain's service. After all, remember how the Repubs went after John Kerry, accusing him of self-inflicted woulds, faking injury and even making fun of his Purple Heart?
However my guess is that the Democrats won't have the guts to do this, since they're wimps and are scared to death of being labeled anti-military. In fact when Wesley Clark made the perfectly logical statement that being a POW doesn't prepare you for being President, there was nary a Democrat willing to back him up, and even Obama repudiated the statement and uninvited him from the convention!
Incidentally, I think this article titled "Why I Will Not Vote For John McCain" is required reading. It's from another pilot who was a POW with John McCain, and it provides valuable context and background info about POWs in Vietnam. Although it was a trying time for McCain, it's clear that the 600 other POWs there suffered similarly, some were captives for a longer time, and many were more decorated than McCain. This was not the singular act of heroism it's being projected to be.
Rather Violent Move to the Center?
Most Presidential nominee's start at the left or right and then veer to the center as the election nears and they appeal to the undecided / independent. However, some of Obama's moves in this regard are worrisome - specifically, his stance on guns, pro-choice, and, capital punishment. A good article summarizing these can be found at http://iht.com/articles/2008/08/25/america/obama.php?page=1
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Elvis of Cricket?
I happened to catch this wonderful BBC tribute to Don Bradman on NPR today. Yesterday was apparently the hundredth anniversary of his birth.
I hadn't realized that Bradman's 99.94 test average would have been over 100 if he had scored just 4 runs in his final inning (he was out for a duck). After watching Olympic records fall over the last couple of weeks, I wonder if there's any other sport in which someone holds a record that's so dominant and unreachable.
I hadn't realized that Bradman's 99.94 test average would have been over 100 if he had scored just 4 runs in his final inning (he was out for a duck). After watching Olympic records fall over the last couple of weeks, I wonder if there's any other sport in which someone holds a record that's so dominant and unreachable.
Saturday Nite Off Topic
This article is interesting:
Phelps now has company as the Games' poster guy
And, this quote is hilarious:
"Still, Bolt will leave China with only three gold medals, not eight. And eight gold medals is nothing to sneeze at, unless the air here is affecting your sinuses. But there is an unfair medal imbalance between track and swimming.
To make a Bolt-Phelps comparison fair, you'd have to allow Bolt to compete in the 200-meter backward run, the 100-meter skip, and the 200 IM - backward running, skipping, frog-hopping and freestyle running."
Phelps now has company as the Games' poster guy
And, this quote is hilarious:
"Still, Bolt will leave China with only three gold medals, not eight. And eight gold medals is nothing to sneeze at, unless the air here is affecting your sinuses. But there is an unfair medal imbalance between track and swimming.
To make a Bolt-Phelps comparison fair, you'd have to allow Bolt to compete in the 200-meter backward run, the 100-meter skip, and the 200 IM - backward running, skipping, frog-hopping and freestyle running."
Freedom of speech
So now that we're done with the big announcement and as we head into the convention, I wonder what y'all thought about the choice of Biden? (Based on RamRam's Google search traffic analysis of course, he's old news - so 2007 :-)
I must confess I've always liked Biden as a person. He livens up discussions, is blunt and outspoken, always quotable, and obviously cares passionately about foreign affairs and government. I was not aware of his personal biography, and have renewed respect for the man.
However we do know how Biden loves to exercise his freedom of speech. For an Obama campaign that has shown great message discipline, how often is Biden going to trample on the message of the day? And are all of his myriad quotes from his past going to provide the McCain campaign with a cudgel to use against the ticket?
I must confess I've always liked Biden as a person. He livens up discussions, is blunt and outspoken, always quotable, and obviously cares passionately about foreign affairs and government. I was not aware of his personal biography, and have renewed respect for the man.
However we do know how Biden loves to exercise his freedom of speech. For an Obama campaign that has shown great message discipline, how often is Biden going to trample on the message of the day? And are all of his myriad quotes from his past going to provide the McCain campaign with a cudgel to use against the ticket?
Random thoughts
My son recently told me that he was put off by the attitude of those volunteering on campus for BO. This from someone who should be a Democrat by DNA was interesting. Probing a bit further, the gist of his gripe - An overdose of "You are a schmuck if you aren't completely on-board". Go figure....
Observing BO's speeches lately? - One word - stiff. Very stiff. His eyes with no expression wander between teleprompters on either side. Defensive? Perhaps. I would like to see him flick attacks off his shoulder, withe a smile, as he did during the primary.
Observing BO's speeches lately? - One word - stiff. Very stiff. His eyes with no expression wander between teleprompters on either side. Defensive? Perhaps. I would like to see him flick attacks off his shoulder, withe a smile, as he did during the primary.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Bouncer's after the convention, and VP Prediction
Rather interesting article and analyses on the bounce in poll numbers after each convention. The significance of the bounce should be compared to the historical – see excellent article by Larry Sabato, Director Univ of Virginia, Center for Politics (http://tinyurl.com/6y8vma)
And, you heard it here first. If numbers and trends are accurate per Google’s Zeit Geist, then my prediction is that Tim Kaine is going to the be VP candidate for Obama.
For a fuller picture see –http://tinyurl.com/56jgs4
Any comments on how that will affect the general bounce that Obama desperately needs and whether it will neutralize the cats from Hilary’s den?
And, you heard it here first. If numbers and trends are accurate per Google’s Zeit Geist, then my prediction is that Tim Kaine is going to the be VP candidate for Obama.
For a fuller picture see –http://tinyurl.com/56jgs4
Any comments on how that will affect the general bounce that Obama desperately needs and whether it will neutralize the cats from Hilary’s den?
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Democracy in Pakistan
I loved this cartoon - I think you'll enjoy it too :-)
Rob Rogers Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Aug 21, 2008 |
Grand New Party
I recently read the book "Grand New Party" written by Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam, two young conservatives. It is a recipe for how the GOP can win back the working class of America. Although intended for Republicans, I believe the Democratic Party can gain more from the recommendations of the authors. They essentially recommend an interesting combination of social conservatism and fiscal liberalism (that's not a typo). It chronicles working class America from the "New Deal" 1930s to the present.
The book received a lot of praise from David Brooks of the NY Times. Rush Limbaugh ripped the book on his show, but that is always good reason to read the book, in my opinion.
kittu..
Has the alarm rung loud enough for Obama?
Good news, bad news.
Bad news - looks like everyone and their brother has recognized that the Obama campaign has got to get a dose of reality and stop basking in the glory of their primary victory.
Good news - most certainly wake up calls have rung from several quarters' and will hopefully wake up Obama and the Democrats. Today's SFGate article titled "Bad news should wake up Obama, experts say" @ http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/20/MN5M12E16U.DTL&type=politics
is proof enough.
Maybe it is time to call for a new ball.
Bad news - looks like everyone and their brother has recognized that the Obama campaign has got to get a dose of reality and stop basking in the glory of their primary victory.
Good news - most certainly wake up calls have rung from several quarters' and will hopefully wake up Obama and the Democrats. Today's SFGate article titled "Bad news should wake up Obama, experts say" @ http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/20/MN5M12E16U.DTL&type=politics
is proof enough.
Maybe it is time to call for a new ball.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Keep Hope Alive?
Right on cue, the New Your Times reports "Obama’s Ads in Key States Go on Attack".
Let's hope this one's for real. I thought this section at the end was interesting:
I wonder about the merits of this strategy. After all, McCain seems to get a lot of free air time for his ads as they get played ad nauseum while the talking heads "report" on them.
Let's hope this one's for real. I thought this section at the end was interesting:
Mr. Obama’s approach to the confrontational advertising is decidedly different from that of Mr. McCain. When Mr. McCain released his spot linking the popularity of Mr. Obama to the celebrity of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears last month, Mr. McCain’s aides held a conference call with reporters.
In several cases Mr. Obama’s campaign has either not announced its new spots or done so only after they were noticed by news organizations.
I wonder about the merits of this strategy. After all, McCain seems to get a lot of free air time for his ads as they get played ad nauseum while the talking heads "report" on them.
The effect is in the affect
Thanks to sisyphus for setting this up - we are indeed at the cusp of some interesting times. I concur with his view that Obama and his machinery are not generating the torque they need to, and it feels as though the engine is sputtering, wheezing and coughing.
Those of you who have not read "Rhetorical Questions" by James Fallows in the Atlantic Monthly should definitely do so (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200809/fallows-debates) - James Fallows is a thorough journalist (btw, he was one of the speech writers for Carter) leaves us with the conclusion that if Obama were to be our next President he would indeed be a "thinking President."
But, therein lies the worry as well - just as most successful startups are made by star salesmen who can cease the opportunity and fire before necessarily aiming; we need some fire power from Obama's camp to lead the way and not be led into responding to the Swift Boat spin room.
It is indeed time for the Democrats to keep the people they got into the tent, as the edges are flapping violently. From backward square leg it looks as though the ball did hit both the bat and the pad ;-). Time for some aggressive batting despite the chucking!
Those of you who have not read "Rhetorical Questions" by James Fallows in the Atlantic Monthly should definitely do so (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200809/fallows-debates) - James Fallows is a thorough journalist (btw, he was one of the speech writers for Carter) leaves us with the conclusion that if Obama were to be our next President he would indeed be a "thinking President."
But, therein lies the worry as well - just as most successful startups are made by star salesmen who can cease the opportunity and fire before necessarily aiming; we need some fire power from Obama's camp to lead the way and not be led into responding to the Swift Boat spin room.
It is indeed time for the Democrats to keep the people they got into the tent, as the edges are flapping violently. From backward square leg it looks as though the ball did hit both the bat and the pad ;-). Time for some aggressive batting despite the chucking!
Oh No, Not Again!
I was having lunch with an old friend (let's call him RS), and was sharing my fear that Obama and the Democrats seem to be on their way to losing another election that they should be running away with!
They're facing a very imperfect candidate who has been on both sides of every issue, has made one gaffe after another, and has hitched his wagon to the policies of the most unpopular president in history. They should be ahead by a mile!
I feel the huge enthusiasm I had for Obama at the end of the Democratic primary race ebbing. I was fired up, ready to contribute dollars, and go out and work to get him elected. I heard Obama's message about wanting to be a different kind of politician who doesn't want to play the usual games. However I also heard about the sharp elbows he had displayed in Chicago politics, and how he was going to take the offense and hit back hard. I thought the Democrats had finally found a candidate who understood the Republican bitch-slap style of politics, and that gave me hope.
Over the last two months though, I've seen McCain and his surrogates make one outrageous charge after another, and I've seen Obama constantly on the defensive while the media dutifully "reports" both sides. Meanwhile Obama seems to have barely laid a glove on McCain.
Obama needs to do much more to convince this Democratic voter - he needs to show some passion, and he needs to really go after McCain. I don't know if I want to fight for a candidate who isn't willing to fight for himself! And I don't want to see 4 more years of Republican misrule because of one more Democratic candidate who thought he was too good to do what it takes to win!
They're facing a very imperfect candidate who has been on both sides of every issue, has made one gaffe after another, and has hitched his wagon to the policies of the most unpopular president in history. They should be ahead by a mile!
I feel the huge enthusiasm I had for Obama at the end of the Democratic primary race ebbing. I was fired up, ready to contribute dollars, and go out and work to get him elected. I heard Obama's message about wanting to be a different kind of politician who doesn't want to play the usual games. However I also heard about the sharp elbows he had displayed in Chicago politics, and how he was going to take the offense and hit back hard. I thought the Democrats had finally found a candidate who understood the Republican bitch-slap style of politics, and that gave me hope.
Over the last two months though, I've seen McCain and his surrogates make one outrageous charge after another, and I've seen Obama constantly on the defensive while the media dutifully "reports" both sides. Meanwhile Obama seems to have barely laid a glove on McCain.
Obama needs to do much more to convince this Democratic voter - he needs to show some passion, and he needs to really go after McCain. I don't know if I want to fight for a candidate who isn't willing to fight for himself! And I don't want to see 4 more years of Republican misrule because of one more Democratic candidate who thought he was too good to do what it takes to win!
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